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Tobacco Control 1998;7:149-155; doi:10.1136/tc.7.2.149
Copyright © 1998 by the BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.
Tob Control 1998;7:149-155 ( Summer )

Instability in smoking patterns among school leavers in Victoria, Australia

Penelope E Schofielda, Ron Borlanda, David J Hilla, Philippa E Pattisonb, Marienne E Hibbertc

a Centre for Behavioural Research in Cancer, Anti-Cancer Council of Victoria, Carlton South, Victoria, Australia, b Department of Psychology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, c Centre for Adolescent Health, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne

Correspondence to: Dr PE Schofield, Centre for Behavioural Research in Cancer, 1 Rathdowne Street, Carlton South, Victoria 3053, Australia. penny{at}accv.org.au

OBJECTIVE---To describe patterns of smoking in a cohort of young adults over the first 15 months after leaving school.
DESIGN---A four-wave, longitudinal survey design was used to gather data. Final-year students from 93 schools completed the recruitment questionnaire at an average age of 17 years. Follow-up questionnaires were posted to their home addresses three months, nine months and 15 months after the end of school.
SETTING---Victoria, Australia.
PARTICIPANTS---A cohort of 1903 respondents who completed and returned all four questionnaires.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES---Self-labelled smoking status ("heavy smoker", "light smoker", "occasional smoker", "ex-smoker", and "non-smoker"), daily cigarette consumption, and maximum daily cigarette consumption.
RESULTS---At school, 72% of the sample were "non-smokers", 5% "ex-smokers", 11% "occasional", 8% "light", and 5% "heavy smokers". At 15 months after school, these proportions had shifted to 64%, 8%, 11%, 9%, and 7%, respectively. Over the study, "light smokers" and "heavy smokers" substantially increased their daily consumption; "occasional" and "ex-smokers" did not. There was relatively high stability in self-labelled smoking status at one wave and the next. However, over the four waves, 38% of the sample changed their self-labelled smoking status, and 41% of these had been "non-smokers" at school. A reduced second-order Markov chain model was found to fit this four-wave behavioural sequence. Detailed description of smoking status changes revealed greater progression to higher levels of smoking than transition to lower levels.
CONCLUSIONS---There is considerable flux in smoking patterns among young adults after leaving school, suggesting an opportunity to intervene with smoking prevention programmes at this stage of development.


Keywords: smoking patterns; young adults; Australia

© 1998 by Tobacco Control
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