Tob Control 2000;9:397-400 ( Winter )

Modelling the short term consequences of smoking cessation in England on the hospitalisation rates for acute myocardial infarction and stroke

Bhash Naidoo^a, Warren Stevens^b, Klim McPherson^c

^a Department of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK, ^b MRC International, Fajara, The Gambia, ^c Cancer and Public Health Unit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Correspondence to: Dr Bhash Naidoo, Health Promotion Research Unit, Department of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK; bhash.naidoo{at}lshtm.ac.uk

Received 8 December 1999; Revision received 10 April 2000; Accepted 17 May 2000

OBJECTIVESTo estimate the short term event and cost consequences of achieving two smoking cessation targets for England among a cohort of 35-64 year olds, in terms of the number of hospitalised acute myocardial infarctions (AMIs) and strokes avoided.
DESIGNA spreadsheet model based on previous work and using data for England was constructed to simulate the effects of achieving the target set out in the government's tobacco white paper (target 1). We also examined the consequence of achieving the intensive smoking reduction witnessed in California (target 2).
RESULTSTarget 1 would result in 347 AMI and 214 stroke hospitalisations avoided in the year 2000, and by 2010 this would be 6386 AMI and 4964 strokes avoided. Achieving target 2 would result in 739 AMI and 455 stroke hospitalisations avoided in 2000, and 14 554 AMI and 11 304 strokes avoided by 2010. Achieving target 1 would save £524 million (£423 million discounted at a rate of 2.67% for stroke and 2.31% for AMI) and target 2 would save £1.14 billion (£921 million discounted) in terms of National Health Service costs.
CONCLUSIONIn the short term (11 years), reductions in the prevalence of smoking will produce sizeable reductions in both events and hospital costs.


Keywords: smoking cessation modelling cost; acute myocardial infarction; stroke

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© 2000 by Tobacco Control
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