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a Department of Public
Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,
London, UK, b MRC International,
Fajara, The Gambia, c Cancer and
Public Health Unit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Correspondence to: Dr Bhash Naidoo, Health Promotion Research Unit, Department of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK; bhash.naidoo{at}lshtm.ac.uk
Received 8 December
1999; Revision received 10 April 2000;
Accepted 17 May 2000
OBJECTIVES
To estimate
the short term event and cost consequences of achieving two smoking
cessation targets for England among a cohort of 35-64 year olds, in
terms of the number of hospitalised acute myocardial infarctions (AMIs)
and strokes avoided.
DESIGNA spreadsheet
model based on previous work and using data for England was constructed
to simulate the effects of achieving the target set out in the
government's tobacco white paper (target 1). We also examined the
consequence of achieving the intensive smoking reduction witnessed in
California (target 2).
RESULTSTarget 1 would
result in 347 AMI and 214 stroke hospitalisations avoided in the year
2000, and by 2010 this would be 6386 AMI and 4964 strokes avoided.
Achieving target 2 would result in 739 AMI and 455 stroke
hospitalisations avoided in 2000, and 14 554 AMI and 11 304 strokes
avoided by 2010. Achieving target 1 would save £524 million (£423
million discounted at a rate of 2.67% for stroke and 2.31% for AMI)
and target 2 would save £1.14 billion (£921 million discounted) in
terms of National Health Service costs.
CONCLUSIONIn the
short term (11 years), reductions in the prevalence of smoking will
produce sizeable reductions in both events and hospital costs.
This article has been cited by other articles:
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  R. L. Sacco, R. Adams, G. Albers, M. J. Alberts, O. Benavente, K. Furie, L. B. Goldstein, P. Gorelick, J. Halperin, R. Harbaugh, et al. Guidelines for Prevention of Stroke in Patients With Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack: A Statement for Healthcare Professionals From the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association Council on Stroke: Co-Sponsored by the Council on Cardiovascular Radiology and Intervention: The American Academy of Neurology affirms the value of this guideline. Circulation, March 14, 2006; 113(10): e409 - e449. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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 R. L. Sacco, R. Adams, G. Albers, M. J. Alberts, O. Benavente, K. Furie, L. B. Goldstein, P. Gorelick, J. Halperin, R. Harbaugh, et al. Guidelines for Prevention of Stroke in Patients With Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack: A Statement for Healthcare Professionals From the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association Council on Stroke: Co-Sponsored by the Council on Cardiovascular Radiology and Intervention: The American Academy of Neurology affirms the value of this guideline. Stroke, February 1, 2006; 37(2): 577 - 617. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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 J. A. Critchley and S. Capewell Mortality Risk Reduction Associated With Smoking Cessation in Patients With Coronary Heart Disease: A Systematic Review JAMA, July 2, 2003; 290(1): 86 - 97. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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 S Hand, S Edwards, I A Campbell, and R Cannings Controlled trial of three weeks nicotine replacement treatment in hospital patients also given advice and support Thorax, August 1, 2002; 57(8): 715 - 718. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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 M Joffe and J Mindell A framework for the evidence base to support Health Impact Assessment J. Epidemiol. Community Health, February 1, 2002; 56(2): 132 - 138. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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