Cigarette consumption and sales of nicotine replacement products
The-wei Hua, Hai-Yen Sungb, Theodore E Keelera, Martin Marciniaka
a School
of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA, b Kaiser Permanente Medical Group, California, USA
Correspondence to: Professor The-Wei Hu, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, 412 Warren Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA; thu{at}uclink4.berkeley.edu
BACKGROUND
The first
nicotine replacement product, Nicorette Gum, was marketed in 1984 as an
adjuvant to help smokers quit smoking. In 1992, sales of nicotine
patches were begun. Before 1996, nicotine gums and nicotine patches
were prescribed by physicians and supplemented with behavioural
counselling. Since 1996, nicotine gums and patches became available
over the counter.
OBJECTIVESTo examine
the effect of sales of nicotine replacement products on national
cigarette consumption.
DESIGNNational time
series quarterly cigarette consumption, sales of nicotine gums and
patches data between 1976 and 1998 are used to estimate a time series
autoregressive moving average intervention model.
PARTICIPANTSNational
reported statistics.
MAIN OUTCOME
MEASURESPer capita cigarette sales.
RESULTSA 10%
increase in sales of nicotine replacement products will lead to a
0.04% reduction in cigarette sales. The model indicates that a 0.076%
reduction in cigarette consumption is associated with the availability
of nicotine patches after 1992. The over the counter dummy variable
(after 1996) has a negative sign, but is not significant, perhaps due
to only a few quarters of data in the study period.
CONCLUSIONSNicotine
replacement products (nicotine gums and nicotine patches) play a
significant role in reducing cigarette consumption, in addition to the
negative effect of increasing cigarette price and the overall trend of
declining cigarette consumption (as reflected by the time trend
variable). The findings of this study suggest that additional efforts
for promoting sales of nicotine replacement products will be another
effective alternative to discouraging cigarette consumption.
Keywords: nicotine replacement products; nicotine gum; nicotine patches; cigarette consumption
© 2000 by Tobacco Control
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