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Letter
Seasonality in cigarette sales: patterns and implications for tobacco control
  1. S Chandra1,
  2. F J Chaloupka2
  1. 1Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
  2. 2Department of Economics, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
  1. Correspondence to: Siddharth Chandra, GSPIA, 3R25 Wesley W Posvar Hall, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA; schandra{at}pitt.edu

https://doi.org/10.1136/tc.12.1.105

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    Cigarette smoking is the leading public health problem in the USA, contributing to over 400 000 deaths a year.1 Given its importance, the tobacco control community should be aware of all significant patterns in the consumption of cigarettes that may be relevant to efforts aimed at tobacco control. Unfortunately, little attention has been paid to the seasonal nature of smoking. Findings on seasonal patterns may have major implications for the timing of interventions designed to manage the tobacco problem, both in the USA and in other countries.

    In this letter, monthly data for cigarette sales at the state level for the USA are analysed to test for the presence of seasonality and to characterise the phenomenon. The results reveal a seasonal pattern that is significant both in the statistical sense and in magnitude. This includes a significant drop in the winter months of January and February, and an increase during the summer months of June, July, and August.* Because seasonality in sales does not reflect seasonality in …

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    Footnotes

    • ↵* This pattern is seemingly contrary to the popular belief that smokers tend to smoke more in winter (perhaps to keep warm) and less in summer.

    • ↵† This was confirmed by parallel analyses of production data and discussions with an expert on the production of tobacco.