How much of the decrease in cancer death rates in the United States is attributable to reductions in tobacco smoking?

Table 1

Overall and lung cancer deaths rates in 1991 and 2003

	Death rate (per 100000)		Percentage change	Absolute change
	1991	2003	Percentage change	Absolute change
Observed death rates (per 100000) standardised to US standard population. Data from Ries et al.¹
Predicted lung cancer death rates represent straight line projections to 2003 from the periods 1950–1975 in men and 1975–1990 in women. Predicted all cancer death rates represent the observed all cancer rate plus the difference between the predicted and observed lung cancer death rates.
Observed data*
All cancers
Men	279.1	234.1	−16.1%	−45.0
Women	173.3	160.5	−8.5%	−14.8
Both	215.1	190.1	−11.6%	−25.0
Lung cancer
Men	89.9	71.9	−20.0%	−18.0
Women	37.6	41.2	+9.6%	+3.6
Both	59.0	54.2	−8.1%	−4.8
Predicted data†
All cancers
Men	300.5	299.2	−0.4%	−1.3
Women	174.6	172.9	−1.0%	−1.7
Lung cancer
Men	111.3	137.0	+23.1%	+25.7
Women	38.3	53.6	+39.6%	+15.3

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