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Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes
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  • Published on:
    Assuming ecigs will cut smoking does not prove that ecigs will save lives; new paper an exercise in tautology

    NOT PEER REVIEWED
    The paper, “Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes” by David Levy et al. published in Tobacco Control on October 2, 2017, attracted a moderate amount of attention with its conclusion that “Compared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. … Our projections show that a strategy of replacing cigarette smoking with vaping would yield substantial life year gains, …”

    This is a pretty impressive result until you consider that the Optimistic Scenario is based on a series of assumptions that are of which are inconsistent with empirical evidence to date:

    Cigarette smoking prevalence drops from 17% to 5% in 10 years (from 19.3% to 4.6% in men and from $14.1% to 4.6% in women between 2016 and 2026).
    The existence of e-cigarettes does not, on average, depress quitting cigarettes.
    There is no relapse from e-cigarette use to cigarette smoking.
    No youth who initiate with e-cigarettes progress to cigarette use.
    No dual use of cigarettes and e-cigarettes.
    The evidence free claim that e-cigarettes are 5% as dangerous as cigarettes.

    (These assumptions were not clearly stated in the main paper; we figured them out based on the appendix and by examining the Excel spreadsheet of the model that the authors s...

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    Conflict of Interest:
    None declared.