Estimates of Smoking-Attributable Deaths at Ages 15–54, Motherless or Fatherless Youths, and Resulting Social Security Costs in the United States in 1994

doi:10.1006/pmed.2000.0657

Preventive Medicine

Volume 30, Issue 5, May 2000, Pages 353-360

https://doi.org/10.1006/pmed.2000.0657 Get rights and content

Abstract

Background. Deaths of parents often harm their children, taxpayers, and society, for decades. So we estimated the smoking-attributable (SA) counts and percentages (SA%) of U.S. 1994 deaths at child-rearing ages; youths (ages <18) left motherless or fatherless; and resulting Social Security Survivors Insurance taxes.

Design. U.S. 1994 age/sex/education-specific total and SA death counts were estimated using death certificate data and standard CDC SAMMEC methods (with added injury mortality), respectively. We separately summed (a) total and (b) SA age/sex/education-specific death counts times their average number of youths per adult (cumulative fertility, adjusted for infant mortality). We then multiplied the SA and total bereft youth counts by their average duration of Survivors Insurance, and calculated the SA cost of youth Survivors Insurance.

Results. In 1994, smoking caused an estimated 44,000 male and 19,000 female U.S. deaths at ages 15–54, leaving 31,000 fatherless and 12,000 motherless youths. On December 31, 1994, the SA prevalences [count (SA%)] of fatherless or motherless youths were an estimated 220,000 (17%) and 86,000 (16%), respectively. Resulting Survivors Insurance costs were about $1.4 (sensitivity range: $0.58–3.7) billion in 1994.

Conclusions. Smoking causes many U.S. deaths at ages 15–54, youth bereavements, and Survivors Insurance costs. Reductions in smoking may greatly reduce those deaths, bereavements, and taxpayer and societal costs.

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^☆: This work was supported by the University of California, Davis.

²: To whom reprint requests should be addressed. Fax: (530) 752-3239. E-mail: [email protected].

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Regular ArticleEstimates of Smoking-Attributable Deaths at Ages 15–54, Motherless or Fatherless Youths, and Resulting Social Security Costs in the United States in 1994☆

Abstract

Prev Med

Prev Med

Lancet

Am J Prev Med

Early Hum Dev

Am J Prev Med

Am J Prev Med

J Allergy Clin Immunol

Estimates of the number of motherless youth orphaned by AIDS in the United States [see comments]

JAMA

Early loss of mother or father predicts depression in old age

Int J Geriatr Psychiatry

Coping with loss: bereavement in childhood

Br Med J

Trauma and postraumatic stress disorder in the com munity: the 1996 Detroit Area Survey of Trauma

Arch Gen Psychiatry

An appeal from the Director-General of the World Health Organization for World No-Tobacco Day 1995

World health report 1999: making a difference

MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep

The taxes of sin: do smokers and drinkers pay their way? [see comments]

JAMA

The global tobacco epidemic

Injury prevention [letter]

N Engl J Med

The health care costs of smoking [letter]

N Engl J Med

The health care costs of smoking

N Engl J Med

Clean lungs at a price: do smoking-related deaths save the nation money?

U.S. News World Rep

The costs of poor health habits

Harvard

Blowing smoke about cigarettesm

Washington Post

Address to nicotine dependency conference

Social Security Bulletin, Annual statistical supplement, 1997

Health, United States, 1996–97 and Injury Chartbook

1985 birth cohort linked birth/infant death data set

1991 natality data set

Regular Article
Estimates of Smoking-Attributable Deaths at Ages 15–54, Motherless or Fatherless Youths, and Resulting Social Security Costs in the United States in 1994☆