Table 4

Effects of sustained youth access policies on smoking and smoking attributable death rates

	Smoking rate (%)	Smoking attributable deaths	% Change in smoking rate^4-150	Lives saved^4-151	% Change in smoking rate	Lives saved	Smoking rate (%)	Smoking attributable deaths	% Change in smoking rate^4-150	Lives saved^4-151	% Change in smoking rate	Lives saved
Programme	Status quo	Status quo	Moderate policy^4-153	Moderate policy	Intensive policy^4-154	Intensive Policy	Status quo	Status quo	Moderate policy	Moderate policy	Intensive policy	Intensive policy
Effects in	Ages 10–17^4-152	Ages 10–17	Ages 10–17	Ages 10–17	Ages 10–17	Ages 10–17	All ages	All ages	All ages	All ages	All ages	All ages
Baseline^4-160	4.0	–	–	–	–	–	18.4	418317	–	–	–	–
1st year	6.6	0	−13.5	0	−27.1	0	18.3	420362	−0.4	0	0.4	0
2nd year	9.7	0	−13.0	0	−23.7	0	18.2	422964	−0.5	0	−0.6	0
3rd year	13.0	0	−10.4	0	−20.8	0	18.1	425947	−0.6	0	−1.1	0
5th year	16.4	0	−8.5	0	−17.1	0	17.9	429912	−0.8	0	−1.6	0
10th year	28.3	0	−5.8	0	−11.7	0	17.4	443672	−1.4	0	−2.9	0
20th year	26.8	2111	−5.3	122	−10.8	242	16.5	468909	−2.4	204	−5.2	404
30th year	23.8	17629	−5.3	1017	−10.8	2042	15.6	486476	−3.4	1478	−7.5	2974
40th year	19.7	34209	−5.3	1979	−10.8	3972	15.3	449120	−4.3	3904	−9.4	7881

↵4-150 Percentage change is measured relative to business as usual (that is, the absence of the policy) for the same year.
↵4-151 Lives saved are per year. Lives saved is measured as the baseline number of death minus the number of deaths under the new policy.
↵4-152 Tracks the cohort through time.
↵4-153 Moderate policy = 86% retail compliance.
↵4-154 Intensive policy = 98% retail compliance.
↵4-160 Year 2000.