Table 3

Estimated impact of graphic health warning labels: analysing FDA's approach

Canada*	FDA's approach	Model A replication with cig taxes	Model B replication with official price index	Model C replication with actual paid price	Model D using all obs with cig taxes	Model E using all obs with official price index	Model F using all obs with actual paid price
Unexplained smoking rates in Canada
Mean pre-2001 period	0.129	0.079	0.050	0.050	0.072	0.041	0.136
Mean post-2001 period	−0.501	−0.253	−0.116	−0.812	−1.777	−1.194	−1.574
Difference (Post—Pre)	−0.630	−0.332	−0.165	−0.861	−1.849	−1.234	−1.711
USA†	FDA	Model A	Model B	Model C	Model D	Model E	Model F
Unexplained smoking rates in the USA
Mean pre-2001 period	−0.010	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.085	0.112	0.125
Mean post-2001 period	−0.552	−0.475	−1.485	−1.686	−0.044	−0.061	−0.069
Difference (Post—Pre)	−0.541	−0.476	−1.485	−1.686	−0.130	−0.173	−0.194
(Canada Difference—USA difference)	FDA	Model A	Model B	Model C	Model D	Model E	Model F
Estimated impact of graphic health warning label on smoking rate
	−0.089	0.144	1.320	0.825	−1.719	−1.061	−1.516

*The estimated/predicted smoking rates in Canada are presented in online supplementary appendix 4.
†The estimated/predicted smoking rates in the USA are presented in online supplementary appendix 5.
FDA, Food and Drug Administration