Estimated impact of restricting tobacco outlets to half of liquor stores only: QALYs gained and health system cost savings, by population subgroup*
| Sex and age (in 2011) | Non-Māori | Māori | Total population | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QALYs gained | Net health system cost-savings (NZ$ million)† | QALYs gained | QALYs gained via equity analysis‡ | Net health system cost-savings (NZ$ million)† | QALYs gained | Net health system cost-savings (NZ$ million)† | |
| Sex and age-groups combined | 66 200 (36 800 to 113 000) | $1170 (644 to 1970) | 63 200 (35 500 to 103 000) | 94 900 (51 400 to 158 000) | $646 (361 to 1050) | 129 000 (74 100 to 212 000) | $1820 (1030 to 2960) |
| Men | |||||||
| 0–14 years | 15 800 | $334 | 15 700 | 23 800 | $242 | 31 500 | $576 |
| 15–24 years | 9340 | $182 | 6120 | 9430 | $86.2 | 15 500 | $268 |
| 25–44 years | 8590 | $136 | 3470 | 5480 | $40.8 | 12 100 | $177 |
| 45–64 years | 2660 | $31.5 | 610 | 1110 | $5.8 | 3280 | $37.3 |
| 65+ years | 100 | $0.6 | 10 | 20 | $0.05 | 100 | $0.6 |
| All ages | 36 500 | $684 | 25 900 | 39 900 | $375 | 62 400 | $1060 |
| Women | |||||||
| 0–14 years | 13 200 | $242 | 22 000 | 31 800 | $173 | 35 200 | $415 |
| 15–24 years | 6930 | $121 | 8490 | 12 600 | $61.3 | 15 400 | $183 |
| 25–44 years | 6990 | $101 | 5590 | 8580 | $31.8 | 12 600 | $133 |
| 45–64 years | 2500 | $24.8 | 1120 | 2030 | $4.7 | 3630 | $29.4 |
| 65+ years | 120 | $0.5 | 20 | 50 | $0.05 | 140 | $0.5 |
| All ages | 29 700 | $490 | 37 200 | 55 000 | $271 | 66 900 | $761 |
| Per capita (QALYs/1000 people and $) | 17.7 | $0.31 | 93.7 | 141 | $0.96 | 29.4 | $0.41 |
| Scenario analyses | |||||||
| 3% Discount rate | 26 500 | $525 | |||||
| 6% Discount rate | 6840 | $172 | |||||
| 20% lower PE for all smokers | 105 000 | $1490 | |||||
| 20% higher PE for all smokers | 154 000 | $2180 | |||||
| Same PE for Māori and Non-Māori | 120 000 | $1730 | |||||
| Growth in the illicit market§ | 129 000 | $1820 | |||||
*Values over the remainder of the 2011 New Zealand population's lifetime. Undiscounted. All values rounded to three meaningful digits. 95% uncertainty intervals in brackets.
†Costs in 2011 NZ$; Includes the cost offsets and intervention cost, the latter being the cost of a law ($3.6 million, 95% UI $1.7 to $6.0 million) mandating retail outlet reductions, distributed pro-rata across all citizens alive in 2011.
‡QALYs for Māori in an ‘Equity analysis’ are calculated using non-Māori background mortality and morbidity rates, so as not to ‘penalise’ Māori due to higher background mortality and morbidity rates.
§A growing illicit market, whereby every 10% increase in the price of a pack of 20 cigarettes would result in a 1% increase in the illicit market. This results in the illicit market share reaching 7% in 2021.
PE, price elasticities.