Elsevier

Preventive Medicine

Volume 31, Issue 3, September 2000, Pages 279-286
Preventive Medicine

Regular Article
Increasing Taxes as a Strategy to Reduce Cigarette Use and Deaths: Results of a Simulation Model

https://doi.org/10.1006/pmed.2000.0696Get rights and content

Abstract

Objectives. The aim of this study was to develop a simulation model to predict the effects of taxes on the smoking rate and smoking-attributable deaths.

Methods. The model projects the number of smokers and smoking-related deaths from a baseline year forward. The effects of taxes of different sizes, indexed and unindexed, and temporary vs sustained are modeled.

Results. The model predicts that sustained tax increases have the potential to substantially reduce the number of smokers and the number of premature deaths, with the effects growing over time. Indexing taxes to inflation stems erosion of the tax effect.

Conclusions. Tax hikes have the ability to substantially affect smoking rates in the near term. These effects grow over time and lead to substantial savings in lives and health care costs.

References (45)

  • Bureau of the Census, Current population survey, September 1992, January 1993, May 1993: Tobacco use supplement [Custom...
  • 1993 National Health Interview Survey: Teenage attitudes and practices supplemental file [CD-ROM]. (1996). (CD-ROM...
  • Am J Public Health

    (1995)
  • EA Gilpin et al.

    Duration of smoking abstinence and success in quitting

    J Natl Cancer Inst

    (1997)
  • U.S. Dept of Health and Human Services, Health benefits of smoking cessation: a report of the Surgeon General,...
  • 1993 Multiple Cause-of-Death File [CD-ROM]. (CD-ROM series 20, no. 11), Hyattsville, MD, National Center for Health...
  • Thun, M, J, Myers, D, G, Day-Lally, C, Namboodiri, M, M, Calle, E, E, Flanders, W, D, Adams, S, L, Heath, C, W, Jr. Age...
  • The quantification of drug-caused morbidity and mortality in Australia 1995

    (1995)
  • JM Shultz et al.

    Quantifying the disease impact of cigarette smoking with SAMMEC II software

    Public Health Rep

    (1991)
  • RL Andrews et al.

    The determinants of cigarette consumption: a meta analysis

    J Public Policy Marketing

    (1991)
  • FE Zimring et al.

    Cigarette taxes as cigarette policy

    Tobacco Cont

    (1995)
  • GS Becker et al.

    An empirical analysis of cigarette addiction

    Am Econ Rev

    (1994)
  • Cited by (0)

    We thank the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Grant 036088 for support in preparing the manuscript.

    2

    To whom correspondence and reprint requests should be addressed at 14403 Sylvan Glade Drive, N. Potomac, MC 20878.

    View full text