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Bias and variability in purchase intention scales

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Abstract

Although purchase intention scales are widely used, relatively little is known about bias and variability in the estimated purchase proportions. Psychometric techniques have been developed to correct for such problems, and analytical approaches have shown that most predictive errors can be explained as probabilistic variability. However, there is a lack of systematic empirical work in the area. We address this problem using two meta-analyses of published work. Our results show that purchase intention scales are empirically unbiased. Furthermore, the variability is much less than previously assumed. This finding improves the confidence researchers can have in the use of such scales. Interestingly, purchase probability scales performed even better than purchase intention scales. The greater precision of probability scales suggests that they may be more useful both as direct measures of likely behavior and as dependent variables in consumer behavior research.

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Acknowledgements

Thanks to the Academy of Business Research at Massey University for financial support, to Dr. Mike Brennan for assistance with the stated purchase probability literature, to Associate Professor Ron Garland, members of the Ehrenberg-Institute, Professor Pierre Chandon and the editor and three anonymous JAMS reviewers for helpful comments.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, University of South Australia, GPO Box 2471, Adelaide, SA, 5001, Australia

    Malcolm Wright

  2. Department of Marketing, Massey University, Private Bag, 11-222, Palmerston North, New Zealand

    Murray MacRae

Authors
  1. Malcolm Wright
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  2. Murray MacRae
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Malcolm Wright or Murray MacRae.

Appendix

Appendix

JUSTER SCALE STUDIES INCLUDED IN THE META-ANALYSIS

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Brennan, Mike, and Don Esslemont. 1994. “The Accuracy of the Juster Scale for Predicting Purchase Rates of Branded Fast Moving Consumer Goods.” Marketing Bulletin 5: 47–52.

Brennan, Mike, Dean Hini, and Don Esslemont. 1994. “Obtaining Purchase Probability Data Via Telephone Surveys: A Preliminary Test of Two Techniques.” Marketing Bulletin 5: 64–70.

Brennan, Mike, Don Esslemont, and Dean Hini. 1995. “Obtaining Purchase Predictions Via Telephone Interviews.” Journal of the Market Research Society 37(3): 241–250.

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Wright, M., MacRae, M. Bias and variability in purchase intention scales. J. of the Acad. Mark. Sci. 35, 617–624 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11747-007-0049-x

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