A quantitative estimate of nonsmokers' lung cancer risk from passive smoking

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Abstract

This work presents a quantitative assessment of nonsmokers' risk of lung cancer from passive smoking. The estimates given should be viewed as preliminary and subject to change as improved research becomes available. It is estimated that U.S. nonsmokers are exposed to from 0 to 14 mg of tobacco tar per day, and that the typical nonsmoker is exposed to 1.4 mg per day. A phenomenological exposure-response relationship is derived, yielding 5 lung cancer deaths per year per 100,000 persons exposed, per mg daily tar exposure. This relationship yields lung cancer mortality rates and mortality ratios for a U.S. cohort which are consistent to within 5% with the results of both of the large prospective epidemiological studies of passive smoking and lung cancer in the United States and Japan. Aggregate exposure to ambient tobacco smoke is estimated to produce about 5000 lung cancer deaths per year in U.S. nonsmokers aged ≥ 35 yr, with an average loss of life expectancy of 17 ± 9 yr per fatality. The estimated risk to the most-exposed passive smokers appears to be comparable to that from pipe and cigar smoking. Mortality from passive smoking is estimated to be about two orders of magnitude higher than that estimated for carcinogens currently regulated as hazardous air pollutants under the federal Clean Air Act.

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