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Original research
Economic and environmental effects of reduction in smoking prevalence in Tanzania
  1. Veena Jha1,
  2. Badri G Narayanan2,
  3. Deepika Wadhwa3,
  4. Jean Tesche4
  1. 1 IKDHVAJ Advisers LLP, Delhi, India
  2. 2 School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
  3. 3 Infinite Sum Modeling Inc, Seattle, Washington, USA
  4. 4 PND/TCE, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
  1. Correspondence to Dr. Jean Tesche, World Health Organization; teschej{at}who.int

Abstract

Background In Tanzania, strong tobacco control measures that would lead to a reduction in prevalence (consumption) have so far not been implemented due to concern about possible economic effects on gross domestic product and employment. The aim of this study is to analyse the economic effects of reducing tobacco consumption in Tanzania.

Methods The study uses computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling to arrive at the effects of decreasing tobacco prevalence. A full-fledged global CGE model was developed, including comprehensive details on tobacco and tobacco products/sectors using the Global Trade Analysis Program-Environment model and database.

Results The results indicate that a 30% reduction in prevalence could lead to employment losses of about 20.8% in tobacco and 7.8% in the tobacco products sector. However, when compensated by increases in other sectors the overall decline in employment is only 0.5%. The decline in the economy as a whole is negligible at −0.3%.

Conclusion Initially, some assistance from the Tanzanian government may be needed for the displaced workers from the tobacco sector as a result of the decline in smoking prevalence. However, these results should be taken as a lower bound since the economic burden of diseases caused by tobacco may be far higher than the sectoral losses. The results do not include the health benefits of lower smoking prevalence. In addition, the revenues from higher taxes, as part of measures to decrease prevalence, would provide more fiscal space that can be used to finance assistance for displaced tobacco farmers and workers.

  • economics
  • tobacco industry
  • public policy

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054635

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    Footnotes

    • BGN and DW contributed equally.

    • Contributors VJ 30%. BGN 30%. DW 10%. JT 30%.

    • Funding Funding for this work was received from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Africa Tobacco Control Project.

    • Disclaimer The authors alone areresponsible for the views expressed in this article and they do not necessarilyrepresent the views, decisions or policies of the institutions with which theyare affiliated.

    • Competing interests None declared.

    • Patient consent Not required.

    • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.