PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Gartner, C E
AU  - Barendregt, J J
AU  - Hall, W D
TI  - Predicting the future prevalence of cigarette smoking in Australia: how low can we go and by when?
AID  - 10.1136/tc.2008.027615
DP  - 2009 Jun 01
TA  - Tobacco Control
PG  - 183--189
VI  - 18
IP  - 3
4099  - http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/18/3/183.short
4100  - http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/18/3/183.full
SO  - Tob Control2009 Jun 01; 18
AB  - Background: In Australia, smoking prevalence has declined in men since the 1950s and in women since the 1980s. Future smoking prevalence in Australia is predicted from estimates of previous and current age-specific and sex-specific cessation rates and smoking uptake in young people derived from national survey data on the prevalence of smoking between 1980 and 2007.Methods: A dynamic forecasting model was used to estimate future smoking prevalence in the Australian population based on a continuation of these current trends in smoking uptake and cessation.Results: The results suggest that Australia’s smoking prevalence will continue to fall while current rates of initiation and cessation are maintained. But a continuation of current smoking cessation and initiation patterns will see around 14% of adults still smoking in 2020.Conclusions: Smoking cessation rates will need to double for Australian smoking prevalence to reach a policy target of 10% by 2020.