TY - JOUR T1 - Predicting the future prevalence of cigarette smoking in Australia: how low can we go and by when? JF - Tobacco Control JO - Tob Control SP - 183 LP - 189 DO - 10.1136/tc.2008.027615 VL - 18 IS - 3 AU - C E Gartner AU - J J Barendregt AU - W D Hall Y1 - 2009/06/01 UR - http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/18/3/183.abstract N2 - Background: In Australia, smoking prevalence has declined in men since the 1950s and in women since the 1980s. Future smoking prevalence in Australia is predicted from estimates of previous and current age-specific and sex-specific cessation rates and smoking uptake in young people derived from national survey data on the prevalence of smoking between 1980 and 2007.Methods: A dynamic forecasting model was used to estimate future smoking prevalence in the Australian population based on a continuation of these current trends in smoking uptake and cessation.Results: The results suggest that Australia’s smoking prevalence will continue to fall while current rates of initiation and cessation are maintained. But a continuation of current smoking cessation and initiation patterns will see around 14% of adults still smoking in 2020.Conclusions: Smoking cessation rates will need to double for Australian smoking prevalence to reach a policy target of 10% by 2020. ER -