%0 Journal Article %A Daniel Hunt %A André Knuchel-Takano %A Abbygail Jaccard %A Arti Bhimjiyani %A Lise Retat %A Chit Selvarajah %A Katrina Brown %A Laura L Webber %A Martin Brown %T Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the public health and economic benefits of achieving a ‘tobacco-free’ UK %D 2018 %R 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2016-053507 %J Tobacco Control %P 129-135 %V 27 %N 2 %X Introduction Smoking is still the most preventable cause of cancer, and a leading cause of premature mortality and health inequalities in the UK. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of achieving a ‘tobacco-free’ ambition (TFA) where, by 2035, less than 5% of the population smoke tobacco across all socioeconomic groups.Methods A non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data to create projections to 2035. These projections were used to predict the future incidence and costs of 17 smoking-related diseases using a microsimulation approach. The health and economic impacts of achieving a TFA were evaluated against a predicted baseline scenario, where current smoking trends continue.Results If trends continue, the prevalence of smoking in the UK was projected to be 10% by 2035—well above a TFA. If this ambition were achieved by 2035, it could mean 97 300 +/- 5 300 new cases of smoking-related diseases are avoided by 2035 (tobacco-related cancers: 35 900+/- 4 100; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 29 000 +/- 2 700; stroke: 24 900 +/- 2 700; coronary heart disease: 7600 +/- 2 700), including around 12 350 diseases avoided in 2035 alone. The consequence of this health improvement is predicted to avoid £67 +/- 8 million in direct National Health Service and social care costs, and £548 million in non-health costs, in 2035 alone.Conclusion These findings strengthen the case to set bold targets on long-term declines in smoking prevalence to achieve a tobacco ‘endgame’. Results demonstrate the health and economic benefits that meeting a TFA can achieve over just 20 years. Effective ambitions and policy interventions are needed to reduce the disease and economic burden of smoking. %U https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/tobaccocontrol/27/2/129.full.pdf