RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Policy options for endgame planning in tobacco control: a simulation modelling study JF Tobacco Control JO Tob Control FD BMJ Publishing Group Ltd SP tobaccocontrol-2019-055126 DO 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2019-055126 A1 Adam Skinner A1 Pippy Walker A1 Jo-An Atkinson A1 Rebecca Whitehead A1 Tim Roselli A1 Mark West A1 Margaret Bright A1 Mark Heffernan A1 Geoff McDonnell A1 Lennert Veerman A1 Ante Prodan A1 David P Thomas A1 Suzan Burton YR 2019 UL http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/early/2019/12/19/tobaccocontrol-2019-055126.abstract AB Objective To investigate the potential impacts of several tobacco control interventions on adult daily smoking prevalence in the Australian state of Queensland, using a system dynamics model codeveloped with local and national stakeholders.Methods Eight intervention scenarios were simulated and compared with a reference scenario (business as usual), in which all tobacco control measures currently in place are maintained unchanged until the end of the simulation period (31 December 2037).Findings Under the business as usual scenario, adult daily smoking prevalence is projected to decline from 11.8% in 2017 to 5.58% in 2037. A sustained 50% increase in antismoking advertising exposure from 2018 reduces projected prevalence in 2037 by 0.80 percentage points. Similar reductions are projected with the introduction of tobacco wholesaler and retailer licensing schemes that either permit or prohibit tobacco sales by alcohol-licensed venues (0.65 and 1.73 percentage points, respectively). Increasing the minimum age of legal supply of tobacco products substantially reduces adolescent initiation, but has minimal impact on smoking prevalence in the adult population over the simulation period. Sustained reductions in antismoking advertising exposure of 50% and 100% from 2018 increase projected adult daily smoking prevalence in 2037 by 0.88 and 1.98 percentage points, respectively.Conclusions These results suggest that any prudent approach to endgame planning should seek to build on rather than replace existing tobacco control measures that have proved effective to date. Additional interventions that can promote cessation are expected to be more successful in reducing smoking prevalence than interventions focussing exclusively on preventing initiation.