@article {Eggere86, author = {Sam Egger and Suzan Burton and Rebecca Ireland and Scott C Walsberger}, title = {Observed retail price of Australia{\textquoteright}s market-leading cigarette brand before and up to 3 years after the implementation of plain packaging}, volume = {28}, number = {e2}, pages = {e86--e91}, year = {2019}, doi = {10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054577}, publisher = {BMJ Publishing Group Ltd}, abstract = {Objective Despite claims by tobacco companies that plain packaging would lead to lower cigarette prices, recommended and observed real cigarette prices in Australia rose in the 9{\textendash}11 months after plain packaging was introduced. However, little is known about trends in prices longer term. In this report, we assess whether inflation (Consumer Price Index; CPI) and tax adjusted ({\textquoteleft}CPI-tax-adjusted{\textquoteright}) prices of the market-leading Australian cigarette brand changed in the 3-year period after plain packaging, and whether price changes were associated with retailer characteristics.Method Cigarette prices were ascertained from a panel of tobacco retailers at three time points: (1) in November 2012 (n=857) (before full implementation of plain packaging, compulsory in retail outlets from December 2012), (2) between October 2014 and February 2015 (n=789) and (3) between November 2015 and March 2016 (n=579). Generalised estimating equations were used to estimate percentage change in mean CPI/tax-adjusted cigarette prices over time.Results CPI/tax-adjusted adjusted mean stick prices rose by 13.7\% (95\% CI 13.0 to 16.0) and 15.2\% (95\% CI 14.3 to 16.0) at 2.1 and 3.1 years after plain packaging was introduced, respectively. Increases in mean CPI/tax-adjusted stick prices varied by outlet type (p\<0.001), socioeconomic status (p=0.013) and remoteness of retailer{\textquoteright}s area (p=0.028) and whether twin packs were sold (p=0.009).Conclusions Contrary to tobacco company predictions of a fall in prices, the price of the market-leading Australian cigarette brand increased significantly in the 3 years after plain packaging was introduced, and these increases were above the combined effects of inflation and increases in excise/customs duty.}, issn = {0964-4563}, URL = {https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/28/e2/e86}, eprint = {https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/28/e2/e86.full.pdf}, journal = {Tobacco Control} }