TY - JOUR T1 - Deaths from smoking and from HIV/AIDS among gay and bisexual men in California, 2005–2050 JF - Tobacco Control JO - Tob Control SP - 305 LP - 311 DO - 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054850 VL - 29 IS - 3 AU - Wendy B Max AU - Brad B Stark AU - Hai-Yen Sung AU - Naphtali B Offen Y1 - 2020/05/01 UR - http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/29/3/305.abstract N2 - Introduction Deaths from HIV/AIDS have long been of concern to the gay community, but less attention has focused on smoking-attributable deaths despite the relatively high smoking rates among gay and bisexual men. This study compared deaths from HIV/AIDS with smoking-attributable deaths among California gay and bisexual men from 2005 to 2050.Methods Smoking-attributable fractions (SAFs) were estimated using smoking prevalence for gay and bisexual men from the 2011–2014 California Health Interview Surveys and published relative risks of death. Smoking-attributable deaths were calculated by multiplying the SAFs by deaths among gay and bisexual men. Deaths from HIV/AIDS among men who have sex with men was obtained from the California Department of Public Health. Future deaths from smoking and HIV/AIDS were projected using regression equations based on time trends.Results From 2005 to 2014, smoking caused over 6800 deaths among gay and bisexual men, while nearly 9500 died from HIV/AIDS. Mortality from both causes has been falling, but deaths from HIV/AIDS have been falling more rapidly. Projections suggest that in the mid-2040s, more gay/bisexual men will die from smoking than from HIV/AIDS.Conclusion Smoking will surpass HIV/AIDS as a cause of death among gay and bisexual men in California within a few decades. The lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) community was highly effective in drawing attention and resources to the fight against HIV/AIDS, saving untold lives by hastening effective treatments. Lessons learnt in the fight against AIDS should be used to help fight the tobacco epidemic. ER -