PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE AU - Goodchild, Mark AU - Paul, Jeremias AU - Iglesias, Roberto AU - Bouw, Annerie AU - Perucic, Anne-Marie TI - Potential impact of eliminating illicit trade in cigarettes: a demand-side perspective AID - 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2020-055980 DP - 2022 Jan 01 TA - Tobacco Control PG - 57--64 VI - 31 IP - 1 4099 - http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/31/1/57.short 4100 - http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/31/1/57.full SO - Tob Control2022 Jan 01; 31 AB - Background The Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products (the Protocol) entered into force in September 2018, and commits Parties to implement a package of measures to combat this global problem. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of eliminating illicit cigarettes on consumption, use and tax revenues.Methods We identified 36 countries where an independent (non-industry sponsored) study of the illicit cigarette market was available. We developed a conceptual framework for describing how the elimination of illicit cigarettes might impact on demand (consumption and use) and applied this framework to our sample of countries to assess the impact of eliminating illicit cigarettes across different settings.Findings Illicit cigarettes account on average for 11.2% of the market in these 36 countries. The elimination of illicit cigarettes would reduce total cigarette consumption by 1.9% across these countries. The decrease in ‘group A’ countries—where illicit cigarettes are >15% of the market—would average 4.1%. The smoking rate would decrease by 1.0% in relative terms including by 2.2% in group A countries. Tax revenues from the legal sale of cigarettes would increase by 11.2% including by 25.1% in group A countries.Conclusions The illicit cigarette market reflects a complex interplay between supply and demand, with an array of different country conditions. Regardless of the situation, our study highlights the contribution that the elimination of illicit trade can make to tobacco control through demand reduction while at the same time generating significant tax revenues.All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as online supplemental information.