PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Max Gallien
AU  - Giovanni Occhiali
TI  - No smoking gun: tobacco taxation and smuggling in Sierra Leone
AID  - 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-057163
DP  - 2022 Jun 01
TA  - Tobacco Control
PG  - tobaccocontrol-2021-057163
4099  - http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/early/2022/06/01/tobaccocontrol-2021-057163.short
4100  - http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/early/2022/06/01/tobaccocontrol-2021-057163.full
AB  - Objective To evaluate the common industry claim that higher tobacco taxation leads to higher levels of smuggling, particularly in a limited state capacity setting.Design This paper evaluates the effects of a tobacco tax increase in Sierra Leone on smuggling by using gap analyses. Its models are based on multiple rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey and customs data as well as newly collected data on cigarette prices.Results The paper shows that despite a substantial increase in cigarette taxation, and despite the absence of other formal tobacco control policies, smuggling has not increased in Sierra Leone. Its primary model shows a decrease in cigarette smuggling by 16.74% following the tax increase, alongside a decrease in cigarette consumption more widely and an increase in tax revenue.Conclusions By presenting a low income and lower enforcement capacity case study, this paper provides novel and critical evidence to the debate on the tax-smuggling link. Furthermore, it points to new questions on how states in these contexts can limit cigarette smuggling.Data are available on reasonable request.