TY - JOUR T1 - How much to pay for a track and trace system: a simulation model for South Africa JF - Tobacco Control JO - Tob Control DO - 10.1136/tc-2022-057550 SP - tobaccocontrol-2022-057550 AU - Kirsten van der Zee AU - Corné van Walbeek AU - Hana Ross Y1 - 2022/09/14 UR - http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/early/2023/05/03/tc-2022-057550.abstract N2 - Background The illicit trade in tobacco reduces the effectiveness of tobacco-control policies. Independent track and trace (T&T) systems are considered one of the most effective measures available to reduce the illicit tobacco trade. South Africa, with an illicit trade estimated at over 35% of the total market, is yet to implement a T&T system.Methods An Excel-based simulation model is used to determine the break-even T&T marker cost per pack. At the break-even cost per pack, the government would recover all costs associated with implementing T&T by collecting additional revenues. We conduct a scenario analysis to provide a range of break-even marker costs.Findings A marker cost of between R2.68 (US$0.17) and R5.24 (US$0.34) per pack allows the South African government to collect enough additional revenue to recover all costs associated with T&T. Implementing such a system would reduce cigarette consumption by between 5% and 11.5%. Given that comparable systems cost significantly less than this range (roughly US$0.02 per pack), the government would in all likelihood be able to implement a system at a cost below the break-even rate, thus generating additional revenue.Conclusion The break-even simulation model provides a practical tool for the government to plan the implementation of T&T and to set up an evaluation criteria for the T&T tender process. The simulations illustrate that implementing T&T in South Africa would both reduce consumption (licit and illicit) and generate additional revenue. With some modifications, the model can be applied to other countries as well.Data sharing not applicable as no datasets were generated and/or analysed for this study. ER -