PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Jesch, Emma
AU  - Kikut, Ava Irysa
AU  - Hornik, Robert
TI  - Comparing belief in short-term versus long-term consequences of smoking and vaping as predictors of non-use in a 3-year nationally representative survey study of US youth
AID  - 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056886
DP  - 2023 Jul 01
TA  - Tobacco Control
PG  - 435--442
VI  - 32
IP  - 4
4099  - http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/32/4/435.short
4100  - http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/32/4/435.full
SO  - Tob Control2023 Jul 01; 32
AB  - Introduction Efforts to prevent youth tobacco use are critical to reducing smoking-related deaths in the USA. Anti-tobacco messaging often focuses on the severe long-term consequences of smoking (eg, fatal lung disease, cancer). It is unclear whether these long-term consequences are more likely to deter youth use than shorter term consequences (eg, headaches, friend disapproval).Methods A nationally representative 3-year rolling survey of adolescents and young adults (ages 13–26 years) measured belief in potential consequences of two types of tobacco products: combustible cigarettes (n=11 847) and electronic cigarettes (n=4470) as well as intentions and current use. Independent coders classified 23 consequences as either short or long term. Logistic regression tested the associations between short-term (vs long-term) beliefs and current intentions, as well as non-smoking behaviour at 6-month follow-up.Results Believing in both short-term and long-term consequences was associated with outcomes, but short-term beliefs were more highly associated with anti-smoking (OR=1.40, 95% CI (1.30 to 1.51)) and anti-vaping (OR=2.10, 95% CI (1.75 to 2.52)) intentions and better predicted non-smoking behaviour at follow-up, controlling for prior use (OR=1.75, 95% CI (1.33 to 2.31)).Conclusions These results support temporal discounting by adolescents and young adults and suggest health communication efforts aiming to reduce youth tobacco use should emphasise shorter term consequences.Data are available upon reasonable request. De-identified survey data are stored on University of Pennsylvania servers. Please contact Robert Hornik (robert.hornik@asc.upenn.edu) to request access.