Table 1

Conditional least squares ARIMA and transfer function estimates for the intervention model explaining the ratio of Tasmanian pubs/clubs to Tasmanian retail turnover

Parameters	The model of abrupt and permanent impact*		The model of gradual and permanent impact†		The model of abrupt and temporary impact‡
Parameters	Coefficient	p Value	Coefficient	p Value	Coefficient	p Value
*(1−B)Y_t = θ₀+(1−θ₁B−θ₁₆B¹⁶)a_t+ωI_t, where Y_t is the value of the ratio at time t, and I_t is intervention dummy variable coded “0 = before intervention” and “1 = thereafter”.
†(1−B)Y_t = θ₀+(1−θ₁B−θ₁₆B¹⁶)a_t+[ω/(1−δB)]I_t, where Y_t is the value of the ratio at time t, and I_t is intervention dummy variable coded “0 = before intervention” and “1 = thereafter”.
‡(1−B)Y_t = θ₀+(1−θ₁B−θ₁₆B¹⁶)a_t+[ω/(1−δB)]I_t, where Y_t is the value of the ratio at time t, and I_t is intervention dummy variable coded “0 = before and after intervention” and “1 = at the moment of intervention”.
θ₀	−0.000	0.187	−0.000	0.215	−0.000	0.256
θ₁	0.227	0.004	0.219	0.005	0.221	0.005
θ₁₆	−0.291	<0.001	−0.283	0.005	−0.275	0.001
ω	0.007	0.118	0.007	0.106	0.008	0.081
δ			−0.231	0.697	0.734	0.104
Q₆	6.03	0.197	6.95	0.138	6.79	0.147
Q₁₂	16.53	0.085	17.60	0.062	17.19	0.070
Q₁₈	18.56	0.292	19.98	0.221	20.04	0.218
Q₂₄	29.43	0.133	30.40	0.109	30.15	0.115