Expected compared to actual falls in smoking prevalence and consumption among respondent groups
| Period | May 97 to Nov 1998 | Nov 1998 to Nov 2000 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price increase | 4.3% | 17.7% | ||
| Source: NTC Evaluation respondent surveys; Australian Bureau of Statistics, Consumer Price Index11; Centres for Disease Control MMMW bulletins.14 | ||||
| Expected fall at price demand elasticity | Prevalence | Consumption | Prevalence | Consumption |
| −0.3 | −0.65% | −0. 65% | −2.65% | −2.65% |
| −0.5 | −1.08% | −1.08% | −4.23% | −4.23% |
| −0.7 | −1.51% | −1.51% | −6.20% | −6.20% |
| Actual falls | −5.42% | −0.65% | −4.30% | −7.84% |
| Percent of reduction plausibly explained by price increases | Prevalence | Consumption | Prevalence | Consumption |
| at −0.3 | 12% | 100% | 62% | 34% |
| at −0.5 | 20% | 166% | 98% | 54% |
| at −0.7 | 28% | 232% | 144% | 79% |