Expected changes in smoking prevalence and total consumption due to price effects over the period of the NTC (that is disregarding campaign effects)
| At least weekly smokers Estimated price sensitivity of demand @ | 4.3% real price increase May 97 to Nov 1998 Smoking prevalence | Consumption among remaining smokers | 17.7% real price increase Nov 98 to Nov 2000 Smoking prevalence* | Consumption among remaining smokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source: NTC Evaluation respondent surveys; Australian Bureau of Statistics, Consumer Price Index11; Centres for Disease Control MMMW bulletins.14 | ||||
| *Note, a 4% relative reduction in smoking prevalence is equivalent to an absolute 1% decline in prevalence—say from 25% to 24%. | ||||
| −0.3 | −0.65% | −0.65% | −2.65% | −2.65% |
| −0.4 | −0.86% | −0.86% | −3.54% | −3.54% |
| −0.5 | −1.08% | −1.08% | −4.23% | −4.23% |
| −0.6 | −1.29% | −1.29% | −5.31% | −5.31% |
| −0.7 | −1.51% | −1.51% | −6.20% | −6.20% |
| − 0.8 | −2.69% | −2.69% | −7.08% | −7.08% |