Table 8

Expected changes in smoking prevalence and total consumption due to price effects over the period of the NTC (that is disregarding campaign effects)

At least weekly smokers Estimated price sensitivity of demand @4.3% real price increase May 97 to Nov 1998 Smoking prevalenceConsumption among remaining smokers17.7% real price increase Nov 98 to Nov 2000 Smoking prevalence*Consumption among remaining smokers
Source: NTC Evaluation respondent surveys; Australian Bureau of Statistics, Consumer Price Index11; Centres for Disease Control MMMW bulletins.14
*Note, a 4% relative reduction in smoking prevalence is equivalent to an absolute 1% decline in prevalence—say from 25% to 24%.
− 0.8−2.69%−2.69%−7.08%−7.08%