Table 1 Policy inputs and effect sizes for the SimSmoke model
PolicyDescriptionPotential percentage effect*
Tax policy
    Most recent priceActual prices, price per pack of most widely smoked cigarettes or an average price (weighted by amount smoked of major brands)Through price elasticity:
−0.4 ages 10–24−0.2 ages 25–34−0.2 ages 35 and above
Clean air policies
    Workplace total banBan in all areas3% with variations by age and gender
    Workplace partial ban, requiring ventilationSmoking restricted to ventilated areas in all indoor workplaces2% with variations by age and gender
    Workplace partial ban limited to common areasSmoking limited to non-ventilated common area1% with variations by age and gender
    Restaurant total banBan in all indoor restaurants in all areas1% effect
    Restaurant partial banBan in all restaurants except in designated areas0.5% effect
    Other place bansBan in three of four locations (malls, retail stores, public transportation and elevators)1% effect
    Enforcement and publicityGovernment agency is designated to enforce and publicise the laws1% effect
Mass media campaigns
    Highly publicised media campaignCampaign publicised heavily on TV (at least 2 months of the year) and at least some other media6% effect
    Moderately publicised media campaignCampaign publicised sporadically on TV and in at least some other media, and a local program3.6% effect
    Low publicity media campaignCampaign publicised only sporadically in newspaper, billboard or some other media.1.2% effect
Advertising bans
    Comprehensive advertising banBan is applied to television, radio, print, billboard, in-store displays, sponsorships and free samples6% reduction in prevalence, 8% reduction in initiation, 3% increase in cessation rates
    EnforcementGovernment agency is designated to enforce the laws2% additional effect on prevalence and initiation rates
Warning labels
    WeakLaws cover less than 1/3 of package, not bold or graphic1% reduction in prevalence and initiation rates, 2% increase in cessation rates
    StrongLabels are large, bold and graphic2% reduction in prevalence
2% reduction in initiation
4% increase in cessation rates
  • *Unless otherwise specified, the same percentage effect is applied as a percentage reduction in the prevalence and initiation rate and a percentage increase in the cessation rate, and is applied to all ages and genders. The effects are described further in the references cited throughout the text.