| 2006 (base year)* | Increase in the tobacco-specific excise tax as percentage of the final price to the consumer | |||||
| 10% | 12% | 18% | 25% | 36% | ||
| Excise tax as percentage of the price to retailer | 110% | 136% | 140% | 160% | 190% | 248% |
| Excise tax as percentage of price to consumer | 45.55% | 50.10% | 50.79% | 53.52% | 56.94% | 61.96% |
| Excise tax + VAT as percentage of price to consumer | 58.59% | 63.14% | 63.83% | 66.56% | 69.98% | 75.00% |
| Price per pack† | 20.00 | 22.46 | 22.89 | 24.76 | 27.58 | 33.12 |
| Price change | 12.30% | 14.45% | 23.80% | 37.90% | 65.60% | |
| Consumption (millions of packs) | 1811 | 1695 | 1675 | 1587 | 1454 | 1193 |
| Consumption change | −6.40% | −7.51% | −12.38% | −19.71% | −34.11% | |
| Revenue (Mexican pesos 2006) | 16 499 | 19 073 | 19 473 | 21 030 | 22 834 | 24 482 |
| Revenue change | 15.60% | 18.03% | 27.46% | 38.39% | 48.38% | |
Producer profit is held constant in the simulations.
*Data on the base year (2006) are provided by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit.
†The price per pack (in Mexican pesos) in the base year is estimated with data from the 1994–2005 ENIGH surveys, adjusted for inflation to 2006 using inflation data from the Bank of Mexico.