Table 5 The impact of tax increases on cigarette consumption and revenue
2006 (base year)*Increase in the tobacco-specific excise tax as percentage of the final price to the consumer
Excise tax as percentage of the price to retailer110%136%140%160%190%248%
Excise tax as percentage of price to consumer45.55%50.10%50.79%53.52%56.94%61.96%
Excise tax + VAT as percentage of price to consumer58.59%63.14%63.83%66.56%69.98%75.00%
Price per pack†20.0022.4622.8924.7627.5833.12
Price change12.30%14.45%23.80%37.90%65.60%
Consumption (millions of packs)181116951675158714541193
Consumption change−6.40%−7.51%−12.38%−19.71%−34.11%
Revenue (Mexican pesos 2006)16 49919 07319 47321 03022 83424 482
Revenue change15.60%18.03%27.46%38.39%48.38%
  • Producer profit is held constant in the simulations.

  • *Data on the base year (2006) are provided by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit.

  • †The price per pack (in Mexican pesos) in the base year is estimated with data from the 1994–2005 ENIGH surveys, adjusted for inflation to 2006 using inflation data from the Bank of Mexico.