Table 1

Inputs and output of the simulation model, given a 20% excise tax increase

Specific taxAd valorem tax
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)
Inputs
Initial excise tax burden*4020654040404040404040
Price elasticity of demand−0.6−0.6−0.6−0.3−1.2−0.6−0.6−0.6−0.6−0.6−0.6
Percentage change in net-of-tax price00000010−5010−5
Percentage of decrease in consumption attributed to decrease in smoking prevalence4040404040704040404040
Outputs
Initial total tax burden†53.0433.0478.0453.0453.0453.0453.0453.0453.0453.0453.04
New total tax burden57.0035.9980.9057.0057.0057.0054.9358.1157.0057.0057.00
Percentage change in
 Retail price9.204.6014.959.209.209.2014.606.509.2020.123.74
 Cigarette consumption−5.14−2.66−8.01−2.60−10.03−5.14−7.84−3.715.14−10.14−2.18
 Smoking prevalence−2.11−1.08−3.34−1.06−4.22−3.69−3.27−1.512.11−4.39−0.88
 Smoking intensity−3.10−1.60−4.83−1.57−6.06−1.50−4.73−2.233.10−6.29−1.31
 Excise tax revenue13.8316.8110.3916.877.9713.8310.5915.5513.8318.2711.52
 Industry revenue−5.14−2.66−8.01−2.60−10.03−5.141.37−8.525.14−1.44−7.07
  • * Excise tax as percentage of retail price.

  • Excise plus VAT as percentage of retail price.