Model simulation growth rates versus actual growth rates, South Africa, 1994–2004
| 1994 Value | 2004 Value | Actual percentage change | Predicted percentage change | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| Retail price (Rand per pack, constant 2000 prices) | 4.26 | 8.98 | 110.8 | 113.1 |
| Consumption (millions of packs) | 1769 | 1202 | −32.1 | −29.0 |
| Per capita consumption (packs/adult) | 69.6 | 38.5 | −44.7 | −42.3 |
| Excise tax revenue (R million, constant 2000 prices) | 1605 | 3927 | 144.7 | 163.2 |
| Industry revenue (R million, constant 2000 prices) | 5011 | 5541 | 10.6 | 15.6 |
| Smoking prevalence (percentage) | 31.0 | 23.5 | −24.2 | −24.4 |