Parameter | Source |

Lung cancer | |

Incidence probability | |

Smokers | Australian national incidence data for 2001 from the National Cancer Statistics Clearing House,34 adjusted on the basis of the RR of lung cancer for smokers versus never-smokers,35 and the estimated historical prevalence that gave rise to the current lung cancer epidemiology.7 35 |

Quitters | Smokers’ probabilities reduced over time after quitting according to an exponential model.7 |

Probability of death | Victorian Cancer Registry data for 1994–9.7 |

Utility of life | The mean of two estimates from the Harvard Catalogue of preference scores,11 and 2 more recent studies.36 37 |

Healthcare costs | Estimated from an Australian study,38 and a more recent study from the United Kingdom.7 39 |

AMI | |

Incidence probability | |

Smokers | Population incidence estimated from Australian national mortality and hospitalisation data for 2001,40 41 then adjusted on the basis of the RR of AMI for smokers versus never-smokers,42 and the prevalence of smoking in 2001.7 43 |

Quitters | Smokers’ probabilities reduced over time after quitting according to an exponential model.7 28 |

Probability of death | Estimated from population mortality rates,40 and incidence probabilities (above) using DisMod II.7 44 |

Utility of life | The mean of seven estimates from the Harvard Catalogue of preference scores.7 11 |

Healthcare costs | Estimated from hospitalisation costs,28 and assumptions about medications and ambulatory care post-discharge.7 |

Stroke | |

Incidence probability | |

Smokers | NEMESIS, an Australian population-based study of stroke incidence,45 adjusted on the basis of the RR of stroke for smokers versus never-smokers,42 and the prevalence of smoking in 2001.7 43 |

Quitters | Smokers’ probabilities reduced over time after quitting according to an exponential model.7 28 |

Probability of death | Perth Community Stroke Study.7 46 47 |

Utility of life | A meta-regression of 20 articles.7 10 |

Healthcare costs | NEMESIS, an Australian population-based study of stroke,48 adjusted to 2001 dollars.7 15 |

COPD | |

Incidence probability | |

Smokers | Australian incidence for 2001 estimated from COPD prevalence data using DisMod II,7 then adjusted on the basis of the RR of COPD for smokers versus never-smokers,42 and the estimated historical prevalence of smoking, as for lung cancer.7 35 |

Quitters | Smokers’ probabilities reduced over time after quitting according to an exponential model.7 |

Probability of death | Estimated from population mortality rates,40 and incidence probabilities using DisMod II.7 44 |

Utility of life | The mean of three estimates from the Harvard Catalogue of preference scores.7 11 |

Healthcare costs | The Canadian Confronting COPD study,9 adjusted to Australian dollars on the basis of Purchasing Power Parities.49 |

Probability of death from other causes | |

Smokers | Australian mortality data,40 adjusted on the basis of the RR of mortality for smokers,50 and the prevalence of smoking in 2001.7 43 |

Quitters | Smokers’ probabilities reduced over time after quitting according to an exponential model.7 |

AMI, acute myocardial infarction; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; RR: relative risk.