Table 2 Predicted cases of disease and deaths avoided, and predicted healthcare costs saved, through the NTC*
Cases of disease avoidedDeaths avoidedHealthcare costs saved†
Cases (95% CI)Deaths (95% CI)
Lung cancer10 134 (9815 to 10 454)9872 (9556 to 10 187)$163.24 million
AMI11 498 (11 032 to 11 964)11 834 (11 416 to 12 251)$110.77 million
Stroke2538 (2067 to 3009)4087 (3666 to 4509)$91.85 million
COPD32 682 (32 144 to 33 219)26 258 (25 793 to 26 722)$374.71 million
Any of the above four diseases56 852 (56 154 to 57 531)52 050 (51 392 to 52 709)$740.57 million
Causes other than the above four diseases2822 (2181 to 3463)Not considered
Total54 873 (54 224 to 55 521)$740.57 million

  • *For the remaining lifetime of the 190 000 quitters, censored at age 85 years.

  • †Costs have been rounded; future costs discounted at 3% per annum.

  • AMI, acute myocardial infarction; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.