The impact of cigarette tax increases on tobacco-attributable mortality and government tax revenue using different price elasticities
| 2007 levels | Recent tax adjustment | Increase in specific excise tax of additional 1 RMB | |
| Increase in cigarette tax per pack (RMB) | |||
| Cigarette retail price (RMB/pack) | 6.64 | 6.87 | 7.87 |
| Producer price | 3.98 | 3.98 | 3.98 |
| Tax per pack | 2.66 | 2.89 | 3.89 |
| Total tax as % of retail price | 40% | 43.4% | 50.6% |
| Reduction in cigarette consumption (billion packs) | |||
| 0.15* | 0.54 | 3.00 | |
| 0.50* | 1.82 | 9.90 | |
| Reduction in number of smokers (millions) | |||
| Price elasticities† | |||
| 0.15 | 0.63 | 3.42 | |
| 0.50 | 2.09 | 11.41 | |
| Number of lives saved (millions)‡ | |||
| 0.15 | 0.21 | 1.14 | |
| 0.50 | 0.70 | 3.80 | |
| Prevalence of adult (aged 15+) current smokers (millions) | 31% | ||
| 0.15 | 30.8% | 30.13% | |
| 0.50 | 30.5% | 28.13% | |
| Total number of current smokers (millions) | 308.0 | ||
| 0.15 | 307.37 | 304.6 | |
| 0.50 | 305.91 | 296.6 | |
| Additional total tax revenues (billions RMB) | |||
| 0.15 | 22.58 | 129.4 | |
| 0.50 | 19.63 | 101.8 | |
| Total annual cigarette tax revenue (in US$)§ | |||
| 0.15 | 3.01 | 17.25 | |
| 0.50 | 2.62 | 13.57 | |