Model parameters
| Parameter | Value1-150 | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| OTC scenario | ||
| Probability of using NRT if attempting to quit | 0.35 | 8, 14 |
| Probability of quitting six months using NRT1-151 | 0.106 | 19 |
| ℞ Scenario | ||
| Probability of using NRT if attempting to quit | 0.14 | 8 1-152 |
| Probability of quitting six months using NRT1-151 | 0.106 | 19 |
| Both scenarios | ||
| Probability of attempting to quit by any method | 0.31 | 17 1-153 |
| Probability of quitting six months for those attempting without NRT1-151 | 0.049 | 4,24 |
| Markov models | ||
| One-year probability of relapse for quitters in first two years | 0.11 | 2 1-154 |
| One-year probability of relapse for long-term quitters | 0.024 | 2 1-154 |
| Relative risk of death, current smoker to former smoker (age 18–29 years) | 1.0 | 1-160 |
| Relative risk of death for current smoker to former smoker (age ⩾30 years) | Age and sex dependent (range: 1.2–2.5) | 1, 17, 23 1-164 |
| One-year probability of death, former smoker | Age and sex dependent (range: 0.0051–0.18) | 16 |
OTC = over the counter; NRT = nicotine replacement therapy.
↵1-150 Values for table 1 are presented as the weighted average of values across age and sex strata.
↵1-151 Based on self-reported continuous quit rates in OTC setting; see text.
↵1-152 Based on all reported NRT use (patch and gum) from Pierce et al.[8]
↵1-153 Based on the 1992 National Health Interview Survey data from the National Center for Health Statistics on CD-ROM. These estimates were computed by Dr SS Smith, who is solely responsible for the accuracy and appropriateness of the calculations.
↵1-154 Estimates were based on two stage DEALE transformations[14] to estimate yearly relapse transition probabilities for short-term (1–2 year) and long-term quitters based on National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data.
↵1-160 No data were available for this age group, so we used a conservative assumption that the mortality was not increased in current smokers relative to former for those less than 30 years old.
↵1-164 Estimates were derived from the Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS-II), using the above sources, as well as unpublished CPS-II data provided by MJ Thun (personal communication). Data are stratified by age and sex, but are independent of duration of abstinence for former smokers.