Forecasts of smoking prevalence under four scenarios of tobacco control funding: 2010–2016 (%)
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| Scenario 1: base case | |||||||
| Current smoker | 12.1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.7 |
| Former smoker | 24.7 | 24.7 | 24.7 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.5 | 24.4 |
| Never-smoker | 63.2 | 63.1 | 63.1 | 63.0 | 63.0 | 62.9 | 62.9 |
| Scenario 2: funding cut in half | |||||||
| Current smoker | 12.1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 12.9 |
| Former smoker | 24.7 | 24.7 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.4 |
| Never-smoker | 63.2 | 63.1 | 63.1 | 63.0 | 62.9 | 62.9 | 62.8 |
| Scenario 3: $1.00 tobacco tax | |||||||
| Current smoker | 12.1 | 12.2 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| Former smoker | 24.7 | 24.7 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.6 | 25.6 |
| Never-smoker | 63.2 | 63.1 | 63.9 | 63.9 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 |
| Scenario 4: CDC recommended funding | |||||||
| Current smoker | 12.1 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 10.6 |
| Former smoker | 24.7 | 24.7 | 24.9 | 25.0 | 25.2 | 25.4 | 25.5 |
| Never-smoker | 63.2 | 63.1 | 63.3 | 63.5 | 63.6 | 63.8 | 63.9 |
Assumes that changes in current smoking are allocated equally to former and never smoking.
Smoking prevalence rates are calibrated to the 2007 California Health Interview Survey rates.
CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.