Table 1

Forecasts of smoking prevalence under four scenarios of tobacco control funding: 2010–2016 (%)

2010201120122013201420152016
Scenario 1: base case
 Current smoker12.112.212.312.412.512.512.7
 Former smoker24.724.724.724.624.624.524.4
 Never-smoker63.263.163.163.063.062.962.9
Scenario 2: funding cut in half
 Current smoker12.112.212.312.412.512.712.9
 Former smoker24.724.724.624.624.524.524.4
 Never-smoker63.263.163.163.062.962.962.8
Scenario 3: $1.00 tobacco tax
 Current smoker12.112.210.710.610.510.410.4
 Former smoker24.724.725.425.525.525.625.6
 Never-smoker63.263.163.963.964.064.064.0
Scenario 4: CDC recommended funding
 Current smoker12.112.211.811.511.110.810.6
 Former smoker24.724.724.925.025.225.425.5
 Never-smoker63.263.163.363.563.663.863.9
  • Assumes that changes in current smoking are allocated equally to former and never smoking.

  • Smoking prevalence rates are calibrated to the 2007 California Health Interview Survey rates.

  • CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.