Table 4

Projected and saved events in the low and high effects scenarios from 2012–2020

CHD deathsMyocardial infarctionStrokes
ScenarioLow effectsHigh effectsLow effectsHigh effectsLow effectsHigh effects
Events
 Baseline
  Men155.100
(152000–159000)
155.100
(152000–159000)
334.400
(324000–344000)
334.400
(324000–344000)
248.100
(247000–249000)
248.100
(247000–249000)
  Women87.300
(86000–89000)
87.300
(86000–89000)
182.700
(179000–186000)
182.700
(179000–186000)
281.700
(280000–284000)
281.700
(280000–284000)
  Total242.400
(238000–247000)
242.400
(238000–247000)
517.100
(503000–531000)
517.100
(503000–531000)
529.800
(527000–532000)
529.800
(527000–532000)
Events avoided
 Tobacco law
  Men4.800 (3100–6600)6.500 (4200–8700)11.100 (6800–15400)14.800 (9400–20100)2.400 (1300–3500)3.300 (13800–4700)
  Women2.000 (1100–2800)2.600 (1600–3700)4.300 (2300–6200)5.700 (3300–8100)1.600 (900–2300)2.200 (1200–3100)
  Total6.800 (4200–9400)9.100 (5800–12400)15.400 (92000–21600)20.500 (127000–28300)4.000 (2700–5400)5.500 (3700–7200)
 Law plus price increase
  Men5.700 (3700–7700)11.800 (8200–15500)12.900 (8100–17700)26.800 (17800–35900)3.000 (1600–4400)8.100 (4600–11600)
  Women2.200 (1300–3200)4.200 (2600–5800)4.800 (2600–6900)8.800 (5000–12600)1.900 (1100–2700)4.400 (2400–6400)
  Total7.900 (5000–10800)16.000 (10800–21300)17.700 (10700–24700)35.600 (22800–48500)4.900 (3200–6600)12.500 8500–16500)
  • CHD, coronary heart disease.