JTI's use of HMRC data in its The Billion Pound Drop report24
| Statement on illicit The Billion Pound Drop report24 | What the source actually says and other concerns |
|---|---|
| ‘HMRC estimates that in 2011/12 up to 19% of cigarettes was …NUKDP’ (p. 9) | At the time of The Billion Pound Drop report, HMRC had not published any data for 2011/2012; its latest available data was for 201020/11 19% was HMRC's upper estimate of illicit in 2008/2009. Its upper estimate in 2010/2011 was 16%, and the midpoint, which is the most reliable, was 9%, under half the cited figure64 |
| ‘50% of hand-rolling tobacco consumption in the UK was NUKDP’ (p. 9) | 50% is the upper estimate of NUKDP, with the median limit being 45%. For illicit the median figure was 38%64 |
| ‘HMRC regularly publishes estimates of the scale of excise duty-related fraud…An analysis of these reports conducted by the Tax Payers’ Alliance (TPA)…with tobacco accounting for almost 60% of the total—£16.7 billion’ (p. 12) | The TPA report uses the upper estimate from the HMRC measuring tax gaps reports for the last five years from 2005/2006 to 2009/2010 |
| ‘The Government is well aware of the long-standing problems caused by the illegal tobacco market, the associated revenue loss (as much as £2.9 billion last year)…’ (p. 2) | This is based on the higher end estimate. HMRC's midpoint is £1.2 billion for cigarettes and £660 million for RYO, giving a total of £1.86 billion64 |
HMRC, Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs; JTI, Japan Tobacco International; NUKDP, Non-UK Duty Paid.