Table 3

JTI's use of HMRC data in its The Billion Pound Drop report24

Statement on illicit The Billion Pound Drop report24What the source actually says and other concerns
‘HMRC estimates that in 2011/12 up to 19% of cigarettes was …NUKDP’ (p. 9)At the time of The Billion Pound Drop report, HMRC had not published any data for 2011/2012; its latest available data was for 201020/11
19% was HMRC's upper estimate of illicit in 2008/2009. Its upper estimate in 2010/2011 was 16%, and the midpoint, which is the most reliable, was 9%, under half the cited figure64
‘50% of hand-rolling tobacco consumption in the UK was NUKDP’ (p. 9)50% is the upper estimate of NUKDP, with the median limit being 45%. For illicit the median figure was 38%64
‘HMRC regularly publishes estimates of the scale of excise duty-related fraud…An analysis of these reports conducted by the Tax Payers’ Alliance (TPA)…with tobacco accounting for almost 60% of the total—£16.7 billion’ (p. 12)The TPA report uses the upper estimate from the HMRC measuring tax gaps reports for the last five years from 2005/2006 to 2009/2010
‘The Government is well aware of the long-standing problems caused by the illegal tobacco market, the associated revenue loss (as much as £2.9 billion last year)…’ (p. 2)This is based on the higher end estimate. HMRC's midpoint is £1.2 billion for cigarettes and £660 million for RYO, giving a total of £1.86 billion64
  • HMRC, Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs; JTI, Japan Tobacco International; NUKDP, Non-UK Duty Paid.