Mean percentage error (MPE) and root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) of the deviation from budget revenue
| MPE | RMSPE | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time period (financial years) | Number of years | Beer (1) | Spirits (2) | Cigarettes (3) | Beer (4) | Spirits (5) | Cigarettes (6) |
| 1910 to 1944 (pre-WW2) | 35 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 6.4* | 17.4 | 15.3 | 12.8* |
| 1945 to 2012 (post-WW2) | 68 | 1.7 | −1.3 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 5.3 |
| 1945 to 1959 | 15 | −1.3 | −0.2 | −0.1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 |
| 1960 to 1969 | 10 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 |
| 1970 to 1979 | 10 | 4.3 | −2.8 | 1.1 | 10.4 | 14.0 | 4.8 |
| 1980 to 1989 | 10 | 6.0 | −0.3 | 0.7 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 3.4 |
| 1990 to 1999 | 10 | 1.7 | −2.9 | −0.9 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 8.5 |
| 2000 to 2012 | 13 | −3.0 | −4.7 | −0.7 | 6.2 | 11.6 | 4.5 |
| 2005 to 2012 | 8 | −2.2 | −5.1 | −2.6 | 6.0 | 11.3 | 5.4 |
| 2009 to 2012 | 4 | −0.3 | 1.0 | −6.5 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 7.2 |
*For tobacco the period is 1913 to 1944.
Source: derived from Auditor-General, various reports, and Budget Review, various reports.
WW2, World War II.