Budgeted, actual and predicted changes in cigarette consumption and in the illicit market share
| Percentage change in quantity | Percentage change | Simulation: percentage changes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial year | Budgeted (1) | Actual (2) | Real price (3) | Real GDP (4) | Quantity (5) | Change in illicit market share (6) |
| 1995 | −9.1 | 1.2 | 8.8 | 3.1 | −3.4 (−5.8; −1.0) | −4.6 (−7.0; −2.2) |
| 1996 | −0.9 | −6.6 | 7.9 | 4.2 | −2.2 (−4.6; 0.2) | 4.4 (2.0; 6.8) |
| 1997 | −18.2 | −5.8 | 18.8 | 2.1 | −10.0 (−14.2; −5.8) | −4.2 (−8.4; 0.0) |
| 1998 | 2.0 | −4.3 | 15.9 | 0.5 | −9.3 (−12.5; −6.0) | −5.0 (−8.2; −1.7) |
| 1999 | −4.0 | −6.7 | 14.1 | 3.0 | −6.7 (−10.1; −3.2) | 0.0 (−3.4; 3.5) |
| 2000 | −5.2 | −4.9 | 5.4 | 4.2 | −0.7 (−2.6; 1.2) | 4.1 (2.3; 6.1) |
| 2001 | −5.9 | −3.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | −1.2 (−2.7; 0.3) | 1.9 (0.4; 3.4) |
| 2002 | −5.5 | −3.7 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 (1.0; 2.7) | 5.5 (4.7; 6.4) |
| 2003 | −1.2 | 0.7 | 7.8 | 3.1 | −2.8 (−5.0; −0.6) | −3.5 (−5.7; −1.3) |
| 2004 | −6.0 | −2.3 | 6.7 | 5.0 | −1.0 (−3.4; 1.3) | 1.3 (−1.1; 3.6) |
| 2005 | −1.1 | 1.0 | 5.7 | 5.2 | −0.3 (−2.5; 1.9) | −1.3 (−3.5; 0.9) |
| 2006 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 (0.2; 3.7) | −0.3 (−2.0; 1.5) |
| 2007 | −0.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 (0.2; 3.0) | −0.5 (−1.9; 0.9) |
| 2008 | −1.4 | 2.0 | −1.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 (1.6; 3.2) | 0.4 (−0.4; 1.2) |
| 2009 | −1.7 | −6.0 | 9.1 | −0.8 | −5.9 (−7.9; −4.0) | 0.1 (−1.9; 2.0) |
| 2010 | −0.8 | −12.2 | 6.7 | 3.4 | −2.0 (−4.0; 0.0) | 10.2 (8.2; 12.2) |
| 2011 | 3.9 | −0.3 | −0.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 (1.4; 2.8) | 2.5 (1.7; 3.1) |
| 2012 | 8.9 | 2.6 | −0.6 | 2.7 | 2.0 (1.3; 2.6) | −0.6 (−1.3; 0.0) |
| 2013 | 3.4 | |||||
Source: Author's calculations based on Auditor-General (various years), Budget Reviews (various years), SARB Quarterly Bulletin (2013) and Statistics South Africa CPI (various years).