The simulated impact of increase in cigarette tax on cigarette consumption and revenue in Bangladesh
| Factor | Baseline: Tiered ad valorem (low: 39%, medium: 56%, high: 59%, premium: 61% of retail price) | Simulation A: uniform ad valorem at 61% of retail price | Simulation B: uniform ad valorem at 61% of retail price with a specific minimum of 20 Taka (in 2012 prices) per pack of 10 sticks | Simulation C: uniform specific tax of 22 Taka (in 2012 prices) per pack of 10 sticks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average excise tax per pack of 10 sticks (2012 Taka) | 11.89 | 20.90 | 21.18 | 21.57 |
| Average excise tax share in retail price (%) | 53% | 61% | 61% | 57% |
| Average total tax (excise tax and VAT) share in retail price (%) | 68% | 76% | 76% | 72% |
| Average price per pack of 10 sticks (in 2012 Taka) | 22.46 | 34.26 | 34.65 | 35.67 |
| Percentage change in real price | 53% | 54% | 59% | |
| Number of cigarette smokers (million) | 19.9 | 16.4 | 16.2 | 15.7 |
| Annual consumption (million packs of 10 sticks) | 7603 | 5490 | 5388 | 5125 |
| Percentage change in annual consumption | −27.8% | −29.1% | −32.6% | |
| Revenue (million in 2012 Taka) | 116 045 | 154 372 | 153 497 | 142 376 |
| Percentage change in real revenue | 33.0% | 32.3% | 22.7% |