Sensitivity analyses: estimated cigarette pack costs and adult smoking prevalence for interventions—scenarios A–F
| Intervention (phased in over 10 years) | Notional cost of a pack in 2025 | Ratio of costs Intervention:baseline | National smoking prevalence in 2025 (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rural | Semiurban | Urban | Rural | Semiurban | Urban | |||
| Scenario A: incremental up to 20% of travel being tobacco related (rather than 50%) | Baseline | $22.92 | $20.23 | $14.93 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce total number of outlets by 95% | $24.74 | $21.17 | $15.57 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 9.8 | |
| Permit sales at only half the liquor stores | $33.98 | $24.02 | $17.94 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 9.5 | |
| Eliminate sales within 1 km of schools | $24.12 | $20.91 | $15.53 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 9.8 | |
| Eliminate sales within 2 km of schools | $24.79 | $22.25 | $16.86 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 9.6 | |
| Scenario B: incremental up to 80% of travel being tobacco-related (rather than 50%) | Baseline | $22.92 | $20.23 | $14.93 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce total number of outlets by 95% | $30.20 | $23.98 | $17.51 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 9.5 | |
| Permit sales at only half the liquor stores | $67.17 | $35.41 | $26.96 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 8.8 | |
| Eliminate sales within 1 km of schools | $27.72 | $22.97 | $17.33 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 9.6 | |
| Eliminate sales within 2 km of schools | $30.39 | $28.32 | $22.63 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 9.1 | |
| Scenario C: $0 value on time (rather than $7.18/h) | Baseline | $20.53 | $18.12 | $14.62 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce total number of outlets by 95% | $23.86 | $19.67 | $15.68 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 9.7 | |
| Permit sales at only half the liquor stores | $40.76 | $24.39 | $19.58 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 9.3 | |
| Eliminate sales within 1 km of schools | $22.72 | $19.25 | $15.61 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 9.7 | |
| Eliminate sales within 2 km of schools | $23.90 | $21.46 | $17.80 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 9.5 | |
| Scenario D: 50% lower value on time ($3.59/h) | Baseline | $21.73 | $19.17 | $14.77 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce total number of outlets by 95% | $25.66 | $21.12 | $16.11 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 9.7 | |
| Permit sales at only half the liquor stores | $45.67 | $27.05 | $21.01 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 9.2 | |
| Eliminate sales within 1 km of schools | $24.32 | $20.59 | $16.02 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 9.7 | |
| Eliminate sales within 2 km of schools | $25.74 | $23.37 | $18.77 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 9.4 | |
| Scenario E: 50% greater value on time ($10.77/h) | Baseline | $24.12 | $21.28 | $15.08 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce total number of outlets by 95% | $29.28 | $24.02 | $16.97 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 9.6 | |
| Permit sales at only half the liquor stores | $55.49 | $32.38 | $23.88 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 9.0 | |
| Eliminate sales within 1 km of schools | $27.52 | $23.28 | $16.84 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 9.7 | |
| Eliminate sales within 2 km of schools | $29.44 | $27.19 | $20.71 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 9.3 | |
| Scenario F: 50% lower price elasticities (ie, range −0.05 to −0.20 depending on age) | Baseline | $22.92 | $20.23 | $14.93 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce total number of outlets by 95% | $27.47 | $22.57 | $16.54 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 9.8 | |
| Permit sales at only half the liquor stores | $50.58 | $29.71 | $22.44 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 9.5 | |
| Eliminate sales within 1 km of schools | $25.92 | $21.94 | $16.43 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 9.8 | |
| Eliminate sales within 2 km of schools | $27.59 | $25.28 | $19.74 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 9.6 | |
Scenarios use same parameters as those in table 1 (unless stated otherwise).