SimSmoke projections of male smoking prevalence for ages 15 years and older, Russia, 2009–2055
| Policy/years | 2009 | 2015 (%) | 2020 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2035 (%) | 2045 (%) | 2055 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Status quo policies | 58.6% | 51.8 | 49.2 | 46.5 | 43.5 | 41.2 | 39.6 |
| Independent policy effects* | |||||||
| Excise tax increase | 49.8 | 45.0 | 40.3 | 36.1 | 32.9 | 30.6 | |
| Complete smoke-free air law | 47.2 | 44.5 | 41.8 | 38.8 | 36.4 | 34.8 | |
| Comprehensive marketing ban | 48.5 | 45.9 | 43.2 | 40.2 | 37.8 | 36.1 | |
| High-intensity tobacco control campaign | 49.5 | 46.9 | 44.1 | 41.1 | 38.7 | 37.1 | |
| Strong youth access enforcement | 51.7 | 48.9 | 46.0 | 42.7 | 40.3 | 38.4 | |
| Cessation treatment policies | 50.3 | 47.0 | 44.0 | 40.9 | 38.5 | 37.0 | |
| Combined policy effects | 39.1 | 33.9 | 29.2 | 25.0 | 21.9 | 20.0 | |
| % Change in smoking prevalence from status quo† | |||||||
| Independent policy effects | |||||||
| Excise tax increase | – | −3.8 | −8.6 | −13.4 | −17.0 | −20.2 | −22.7 |
| Complete smoke-free air law | – | −8.9 | −9.5 | −10.0 | −10.9 | −11.7 | −12.1 |
| Comprehensive marketing ban | – | −6.4 | −6.6 | −7.0 | −7.6 | −8.2 | −8.6 |
| High-intensity tobacco control campaign | – | −4.3 | −4.6 | −5.1 | −5.6 | −6.1 | −6.3 |
| Strong youth access enforcement | – | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.0 | −1.7 | −2.2 | −2.9 |
| Cessation treatment policies | – | −2.8 | −4.5 | −5.3 | −6.0 | −6.5 | −6.4 |
| Combined policy effects | – | −24.6 | −31.1 | −37.1 | −42.6 | −46.8 | −49.4 |
*Policies are implemented at FCTC-consistent levels in 2015 and maintained at that level through 2055, except for excise taxes which are increased in steps from 28% of retail price in 2014 to 40% in 2015 to 60% in 2020 and 70% in 2025 and maintained at that level until 2055.
†Percent changes measured as the relative change from the status quo level [eg, (Prevalence w/policy in 2020-Prevalence w/status quo in 2020)/Prevalence w/status quo in 2020].