SimSmoke projections of female smoking prevalence for ages 15 years and older, Russia, 2009–2055
| Policy/years | 2009 | 2015 (%) | 2020 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2035 (%) | 2045 (%) | 2055 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Status quo policies | 20.7% | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.8 | 20.2 | 19.9 | 19.5 |
| Independent policy effects* | |||||||
| Excise tax increase | 19.1 | 18.1 | 17.1 | 16.8 | 16.0 | 15.1 | |
| Complete smoke-free air law | 18.1 | 18.0 | 17.8 | 18.0 | 17.6 | 17.2 | |
| Comprehensive marketing ban | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.4 | 18.7 | 18.3 | 17.9 | |
| High-intensity tobacco control campaign | 19.0 | 18.9 | 18.8 | 19.0 | 18.7 | 18.3 | |
| Strong youth access enforcement | 19.9 | 19.8 | 19.6 | 19.8 | 19.5 | 19.0 | |
| Cessation treatment policies | 19.3 | 18.9 | 18.6 | 18.8 | 18.3 | 17.9 | |
| Combined policy effects | 15.0 | 13.6 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 9.7 | |
| % Change in smoking prevalence from status quo† | |||||||
| Independent policy effects | |||||||
| Excise tax increase | – | −4.0 | −8.9 | −13.5 | −16.8 | −19.8 | −22.4 |
| Complete smoke-free air law | – | −8.9 | −9.5 | −10.0 | −10.8 | −11.6 | −12.1 |
| Comprehensive marketing ban | – | −6.4 | −6.6 | −6.9 | −7.4 | −7.9 | −8.3 |
| High-intensity tobacco control campaign | – | −4.4 | −4.7 | −5.1 | −5.6 | −6.1 | −6.4 |
| Strong youth access enforcement | – | −0.1 | −0.5 | −1.0 | −1.7 | −2.2 | −2.9 |
| Cessation treatment policies | – | −2.8 | −5.0 | −6.0 | −7.0 | −7.9 | −8.2 |
| Combined policy effects | – | −24.8 | −31.8 | −37.6 | −42.6 | −47.0 | −50.1 |
*Policies are implemented at FCTC-consistent levels in 2015 and maintained at that level through 2055, except for excise taxes which are increased in steps from 28% of retail price in 2014 to 40% in 2015 to 60% in 2020 and 70% in 2025 and maintained at that level until 2055.
†Percent changes measured as the relative change from the status quo level [eg, (Prevalence w/policy in 2020-Prevalence w/status quo in 2020)/Prevalence w/status quo in 2020].