Table 2

Transition percentages and net annual cessation rates (95% UI) from the panel survey (SoFIE-Health) used in the sensitivity analysis

MalesFemale
MāoriNon-MāoriRR Māori c.f. non-MāoriMāoriNon-MāoriRR Māori c.f. non-Māori
Cessation transition percentage from waves 3 to 7 (ie, over 4 years)
 20–34 years28.6 (13.6 to 43.5)30.6 (24.8 to 36.4)0.9 (0.5 to 1.7)22.7 (14.9 to 30.6)35.2 (29.5 to 40.9)0.6 (0.4 to 1.0)
 35–54 years18.8 (10.2 to 27.3)23.2 (19.4 to 27.0)0.8 (0.5 to 1.3)15.2 (9.7 to 20.6)22.0 (18.4 to 25.6)0.7 (0.5 to 1.0)
 55+ years40.0 (20.8 to 59.2)29.2 (23.4 to 34.9)1.4 (0.8 to 2.4)33.3 (19.6 to 47.1)22.9 (17.6 to 28.2)1.5 (0.9 to 2.4)
Relapse transition percentage from waves 3 to 7 (ie, over 4 years)
 20–34 years28.6 (13.6 to 43.5)17.6 (11.9 to 23.4)1.6 (0.9 to 3.1)18.2 (8.0 to 28.4)19.6 (15.0 to 24.3)0.9 (0.5 to 1.7)
 35–54 years12.5 (5.3 to 19.7)8.6 (6.5 to 10.7)1.4 (0.8 to 2.7)8.7 (3.5 to 13.8)6.2 (4.5 to 7.8)1.4 (0.7 to 2.7)
 55+ years18.2 (8.0 to 28.4)1.9 (1.1 to 2.8)9.4 (4.6 to 19.3)15.4 (6.6 to 24.2)2.5 (1.4 to 3.5)6.3 (3.0 to 12.9)
SoFIE-Health-derived net annual cessation rates (ratio compared with results table 1 in square brackets)*
 20–34 years6.1 (−1.8 to 14) [10.2]6.3 (3.2 to 9.3) [2.0]1.04.7 (0.7 to 8.6) [3.4]6.0 (3.2 to 8.8) [1.4]0.8
 35–54 years3.3 (−0.6 to 7.2) [1.18]4.0 (2.2 to 5.8) [1.1]0.83.0 (0.4 to 5.6) [0.86]4.1 (2.4 to 5.8) [0.69]0.7
 55+ years4.9 (−3.6 to 13.3) [12.3]6.7 (3.5 to 9.8) [1.5]0.75.6 (−1.1 to 12.3) [0.97]4.7 (2.0 to 7.4) [0.77]1.2
  • *Ratio of net annual cessation rate estimated in SoFIE to the net annual cessation rate in estimated from the baseline model for 2002–2011 in table 1. For example, Māori male aged 20–34 years; SoFIE: 6.1; Dynamic model: 0.6; ratio=10.2.

  • RR, risk ratio; SoFIE, Survey of Family, Income and Employment.