Outputs from baseline model for various demographic groups over time—net annual cessation rates and annual percentage changes in 20–24-year-old current smoker prevalence (reflecting initiation levels) for non-Māori and Māori
| 1981–1992 | 1993–2001 | 2002–2011 | Average over time | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | Female | Male | Female | Male | Female | Male | Female | |
| Non-Māori | ||||||||
| Net cessation rates (years) | ||||||||
| 20–34 | 3.8 (3.2 to 4.4) | 2.8 (2.1 to 3.6) | −1.1 (−2.5 to 0.3) | −0.2 (−1.7 to 1.3) | 3.2 (1.8 to 4.6) | 4.4 (3.0 to 5.8) | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| 35–54 | 4.7 (4.0 to 5.4) | 2.4 (1.7 to 3.1) | −1.2 (−2.4 to −0.2) | 1.0 (−0.2 to 2.1) | 3.8 (2.8 to 4.9) | 5.9 (5.0 to 6.9) | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| 55+ | 6.1 (5.2 to 6.9) | 3.7 (2.5 to 4.9) | 1.2 (−0.3 to 2.8) | 6.1 (4.4 to 7.8) | 4.5 (3.2 to 6.0) | 6.1 (4.7 to 7.2) | 3.9 | 5.3 |
| Smoking prevalence in 20-year-olds* | 1.6 (0.3 to 2.9) | 2.5 (1.1 to 4.1) | 1.1 (−1.1 to 3.1) | −0.9 (−3.2 to 1.4) | 3.1 (0.8 to 5.7) | 1.1 (−1.2 to 3.2) | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Māori | ||||||||
| Net cessation rates (years) | ||||||||
| 20–34 | 0.3 (−0.3 to 1.0) | 2.2 (1.5 to 3.0) | 0.3 (−1.3 to 1.7) | −3.0 (−4.8 to −1.5) | 0.6 (−0.9 to 2.0) | 1.4 (0.3 to 2.5) | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 35–54 | 2.6 (1.6 to 3.9) | 5.1 (4.0 to 6.3) | 5.6 (3.8 to 7.2) | −3.0 (−4.4 to −1.6) | 2.8 (1.4 to 4.2) | 3.5 (2.6 to 4.6) | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 55+ | 2.2 (1.2 to 3.2) | 2.3 (1.0 to 3.5) | 9.1 (7.4 to 10.6) | 1.5 (−0.3 to 3.1) | 0.4 (−1.7 to 2.4) | 5.8 (4.2 to 7.3) | 3.9 | 3.2 |
| Smoking prevalence in 20-year-olds* | −0.3 (−1.5 to 1.4) | 4.5 (2.6 to 6.7) | −0.3 (−2.6 to 1.6) | −3.6 (−6.6 to −0.8) | 4.7 (2.2 to 7.1) | 0.0 (−2.2 to 1.8) | 1.4 | 0.3 |
*Percentage decline, not absolute percentage change. Thus, if smoking prevalence in 20-year-olds is 20% at t0 and the ‘percentage decline in initiation rate’ per annum is 3%, then the smoking prevalence in 20-year-olds in year t1 is 20%×(100%−3%)=19.4%. Furthermore, the smoking prevalence in year t10 is 20%×97%10=14.7%.