The projected prevalence of daily adult smoking in 2025 with increases in tobacco excise tax of between 0% and 20%
| Scenario | Non-Māori men (%) | Non-Māori women (%) | Māori men (%) | Māori women (%) | Total (%) | Year when <5% prevalence reached for adult population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No tax increase (0%) | 9.3 (9.2 to 9.4) | 6.9 (6.8 to 7) | 20 (20 to 21) | 21 (20 to 21) | 9.9 (9.8 to 10) | 2046 |
| Annual 5% increase in excise | 8.8 (8.7 to 9) | 6.6 (6.4 to 6.7) | 19 (19 to 20) | 20 (19 to 20) | 9.4 (9.3 to 9.5) | 2043 |
| Annual 10% increase in excise | 8.2 (8.1 to 8.4) | 6.1 (6 to 6.3) | 18 (17 to 18) | 18 (18 to 19) | 8.7 (8.6 to 8.9) | 2039 |
| Annual 15% increase in excise | 7.7 (7.5 to 7.8) | 5.7 (5.6 to 5.9) | 17 (16 to 17) | 17 (17 to 18) | 8.2 (8 to 8.3) | 2036 |
| Annual 20% increase in excise | 7.2 (7 to 7.3) | 5.4 (5.2 to 5.5) | 15 (15 to 16) | 16 (16 to 16) | 7.6 (7.5 to 7.7) | 2034 |
Mean and 95% uncertainty intervals presented.