Summary of estimates of the illicit cigarette market by the tobacco industry
| Year | Millions of illegal cigarettes sold per day (median) | % market share of illegal cigarettes (median; range in parentheses) | Forgone tax revenues by government (median; US$ in parentheses) | Number of TISA references | Number of BATSA references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 10 (5–15) | 0 | 1 | ||
| 2005 | – | – | 0 | 0 | |
| 2006 | 2.5 | 20 (15–20) | 5 | 0 | |
| 2007 | 10 | 20 (20–20) | 1.4 billion rand ($200 million) | 2 | 0 |
| 2008 | 10 | 20 (20–20) | 1.95 billion rand ($236 million) | 3 | 0 |
| 2009 | 10 | 20 (20–20) | 2 billion rand ($237 million) | 1 | 1 |
| 2010 | 15 | 22.5 (20–25) | 2 billion rand ($273 million) | 3 | 3 |
| 2011 | 15 | 22.5 (20–25) | 2.75 bill rand ($379 million) | 15 | 1 |
| 2012 | 19 | 25 (20–30) | 4 billion rand ($487 million) | 10 | 3 |
BATSA, British American Tobacco South Africa; TISA, Tobacco Institute of Southern Africa.