The projected legal price per stick and annual excise tax revenue from tobacco excise in 2025, with increases in tobacco excise tax of between 0% and 20%
| Scenario | Legal price per stick in 2025 (2011NZ$) | Annual excise revenue in 2025* (2011NZ$billion) |
|---|---|---|
| No tax increase (0%) | $0.70 ($0.59 to $0.81) | $1.06 ($0.68 to $1.5) |
| Annual 5% increase in excise | $1.10 ($0.95 to $1.20) | $2.0 ($1.3 to $2.8) |
| Annual 10% increase in excise | $1.80 ($1.70 to $1.90) | $3.5 ($2.3 to $5.0) |
| Annual 15% increase in excise | $3.20 ($3.10 to $3.30) | $6.2 ($4.1 to $8.7) |
| Annual 20% increase in excise | $5.60 ($5.50 to $5.70) | $10.4 ($6.5 to $15.1) |
Mean and 95% uncertainty intervals presented.
*GST is not included in the excise revenue figures presented in the table.