Policy effects by MPOWER policy, individual and total: Pakistan
| Smoking prevalence | Number of smokers total | Smoking-attributable deaths adjusted* | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | Female | Total | Total | |
| Initial smoking prevalence and deaths | 32.4% | 5.5% | 19 341 200 | 6 285 900 |
| Effect of policies on the status quo | ||||
| Original policy | Short-term effect size† | Long-term effect size† | Total reduction in number of smokers | Reduction in smoking attributable deaths adjusted* |
| Protect through smoke-free air laws | ||||
| High, but low compliance | −2.6% | −3.2% | 623 300 | 202 600 |
| Offer cessation treatment | ||||
| Low level | −1.6% | −4.1% | 785 600 | 255 300 |
| Mass media campaigns | ||||
| Low level | −5.5% | −6.6% | 1 276 500 | 414 900 |
| Warnings on cigarette packages | ||||
| Moderate level | −2% | −4% | 773 600 | 251 400 |
| Enforcement of marketing restrictions | ||||
| Low level | −8.7% | −11.3% | 2 187 500 | 710 900 |
| Raise cigarette taxes | ||||
| Excise Tax=46.2% | −20.2% | −40.3% | 7 794 700 | 2 533 300 |
| Combined policies | ||||
| −35.3% | −55.9% (−39.9%, −69.2%)‡ | 10 815 900 | 3 515 200 (2 506 100, 4 346 700)‡ | |
*Smoking-attributable deaths based on relative risks from high-income nations8 and are adjusted downward by 35% to reflect low-income or middle-income status.9 ,10
†Short-term and long-term effect size are measured in terms of the percentage reduction in smoking prevalence from the initial prepolicy level (ie, (postpolicy smoking prevalence—postpolicy smoking prevalence)/postpolicy smoking prevalence).
‡The lower and upper bounds for the long-term effect size and the reduction in smoking-attributable deaths adjusted for combined policies are based on the lower and upper ranges for sensitivity analysis for each policy from table 1. For individual policies, bounds can be calculated using the ranges for that policy in table 1.